A spatial and temporal analysis of fertility in Guatemala

Recent demographic research has largely been focused on the rapid decline of fertility rates throughout the developed and developing world. The classic theories of the determinants of population change frequently used to model and explore fertility decline and transition in all populations have resulted from substantial empirical research. However many questions about the mechanisms involved in maintaining high fertility rates or in catalyzing a decline among current high fertility populations remain unanswered. While research inspired by the quick and unanticipated decline in birth rates can provide valuable insight into the demographic transition, it is important that population science maintain a commitment to empirical research of high fertility populations. Besides being the fastest growing populations, high fertility groups also tend to be those who suffer the most extreme poverty, nutrition, and dearth of health care and education. Concomitantly, they tend to live in rural remote regions which are increasingly situated in and around the world’s ecological “hot spots” on which they have a considerable impact given that they are nearly all farmers and depend on the forest for felling in order to open agricultural fields and for fuel-wood. Analysis of the correlates of high fertility with attention to modern advances in technology (contraceptive, transportation, communication, etc.) and contemporary concepts of household and community gender equity will update and enhance the applicability and the generalizability of the traditional demographic transition theory and ultimately improve scientific understanding of population change. The objective of this research project is to explore, across time and space, fertility and reproductive health dynamics within a population with one of the highest total fertility rates (TFR) in the western hemisphere, Guatemala. The particular focus of this paper is to compare, employing under utilized tools from formal demography, trends in family size decision making. Related research has indicated that this population may be entering a decline yet, because of limited research focusing on trends across time, by age group and by parity, it is difficult to determine the extent, potential impact or even actual existence of the decline (De Broe & Hinde 2006). In general, little research exists exploring the age and parity specific behavior of high fertility populations and therefore there is a noticeable gap in the understanding of the mechanisms underlying the entrance into or pace of the transition. Therefore, conducting this research at this pivotal time in Guatemala’s transition will provide key information vital to the development of a macro-scale perspective of fertility, ultimately contributing to an enhanced and broadly applicable theory of fertility decline and transition.